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Scientific Reports

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Scientific Reports's content profile, based on 3102 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 3.41% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Structured Patterns of Muscle Involvement in CAV3-Related Myopathy Revealed by Whole-Body CT Imaging

De Los Reyes, F. V. A.; Hayashi, S.; Saito, Y.; Ogawa, M.; Oya, Y.; Noguchi, S.; Nishino, I.

2026-06-04 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354504 medRxiv
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Caveolinopathies caused by CAV3 mutations present with heterogeneous clinical phenotypes ranging from asymptomatic hyperCKemia to limb-girdle-type muscular dystrophy. Although prior imaging studies have described commonly affected muscles, structured modeling of muscle involvement patterns in caveolinopathy has not been established. We analyzed whole-body skeletal muscle computed tomography imaging in eight patients with pathogenic or likely pathogenic CAV3 variants, comprising 14 imaging study samples. Fat infiltration across 43 muscles was graded using modified Mercuri scores. Computational multivariate analysis,including principal component analysis, clustering, and pseudotime modeling,was applied to characterize severity staging and distribution patterns. A statistically supported, stage-dependent continuum of muscle involvement was identified. Most samples demonstrated a distributed limb-girdle-predominant pattern with coordinated progression across muscle clusters. In contrast, one patient (three samples in longitudinal series) exhibited a compartment-restricted thigh-dominant pattern characterized by early posterior and medial thigh involvement. Rectus femoris showed consistent stage-dependent progression, while greater medial gastrocnemius involvement was associated with advanced severity. None of the patients exhibited clinical evidence of rippling muscle disease. These findings suggest that integrating semi-quantitative imaging with computational modeling may provide an objective framework for characterizing muscle involvement patterns in CAV3-related myopathy.

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Compositional microbiome-based signatures associate with general health status: findings from a large population-based cohort study

Pujolassos, M.; Kurilshikov, A.; Weersma, R. K.; Yang-Fu, J.; Zhernakova, A.; Calle, M. L.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354796 medRxiv
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While microbiome is increasingly recognized as crucial for human health, translating this knowledge into effective healthcare and preventive strategies remains challenging. Many studies focus on identifying changes in microbiome composition associated with disease and evaluating the potential of such disease-associated microbial profiles as biomarkers for disease diagnosis. Under the hypothesis that microbiome dysbiosis may reflect physiological alterations present long before disease onset, in this work, we analyse the potential of disease-specific microbial signatures not as a diagnostic tool when the disease is already present, but as a means of health assessment in the general population. Moreover, instead of trying to define a single health measure, we believe it is necessary to consider several ways in which the microbiome departs from health, according to different disease-related physiological changes. To evaluate our assumptions, we designed a two-stage study: the identification of disease-specific microbial signatures (discovery stage) and, subsequently, the study of their distribution in the general population to assess associations with general health (external validation stage). Specifically, in the discovery phase we characterized 16 disease-specific bacterial signatures from large public microbiome data using a compositional data analysis methodology. In the second phase, we quantified these microbial signatures in the Lifelines-DMP cohort, a large population-based cohort, and evaluated their association with self-reported health status. Results indicate that most disease-specific microbial signatures associate with health status, supporting our assumption that microbial composition can capture physiological alterations before disease onset, and highlighting the importance of considering multiple ways in which microbiome departs from a healthy state. These findings reaffirm the potential of microbial information as an additional tool in preventive medicine.

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A risk-of-contagion index using a Bayesian based model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico

Corona-Moreno, R.; Acuna-Zegarra, M. A.; Santana-Cibrian, M.; Velasco-Hernandez, J. X.

2026-06-10 health policy 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355274 medRxiv
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During the COVID-19 pandemic, limited testing capacity and reporting delays complicated epidemic surveillance and decision-making in Mexico. We calibrated \textit{covidestim}, a Bayesian nowcasting model, to estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections from reported cases and deaths using Mexican surveillance data. Disease-progression distribution priors were calibrated using Mexico City records and validated through comparisons with national seroprevalence surveys, hospitalization data, and annual reported severe-case rates across all states. Using the reconstructed estimates of active infections, we implemented an event-based risk framework that quantifies the probability of encountering at least one infectious individual in gatherings of different sizes. This probability was subsequently translated into a four-level epidemiological traffic-light indicator and computed at both state and municipality levels. The resulting estimates revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity that is obscured by state-level aggregation, particularly in states with marked differences between urban and rural municipalities. To evaluate consistency with public-health indicators, we compared the proposed risk classification with the official Mexican epidemiological traffic-light system, considering interpretable gathering sizes relevant to public-health decision making. Weekly reports derived from this framework were delivered to policymakers in the State of Queretaro in Mexico, as an anticipation tool for school reopening and public-space management. This demonstrates that this Bayesian reconstruction of infections combined with event-based risk metrics can provide an interpretable and generalizable municipality-level complement to routine surveillance systems, particularly in regions with limited testing capacity and heterogeneous local transmission dynamics.

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Heart Rate Circadian Oscillations as Digital Biomarkers of Cardiometabolic Health Determinants

Colitta, A.; Bruno, S.; Benedetti, D.; Hoxhaj, D.; Cruz-Sanabria, F.; Di Pede, C.; Buracchi Torresi, F.; Frumento, P.; Gargani, L.; Fabbrini, M.; Maestri Tassoni, M.; Bonanni, E.; Faraguna, U.

2026-06-10 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355124 medRxiv
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AIMS Cardiometabolic risk factors may impair health by altering the autonomic modulation of the cardiovascular system, a physiological process described by heart rate (HR) circadian oscillations. However, the impact of cardiometabolic health determinants on HR circadian oscillations remains scarcely characterized in real-world, population-based settings. To address this, we applied digital health technologies to investigate how cardiometabolic health determinants shape HR circadian oscillations in a real-world cohort of individuals free of cardiometabolic diseases. METHODS First, a 10-fold cross-validation of a model was performed, aiming at mitigating wearables measurement error caused by motion artifacts. This process was informed by 10,056 epochs of concurrent wearable-derived and polysomnographic HR assessment, yielding an average 1.3 bpm reduction in wearables measurement error. We subsequently applied this model to over 2 million 1-minute epochs of HR data, derived from 7-day continuous actigraphic recordings of 245 individuals free of cardiometabolic disorders. Functional-on-scalar regression modelling and both parametric and nonparametric analyses characterized HR circadian profiles and their relationships with demographics, lifestyle, chronotype, sleep health, and chronic insomnia diagnosis. A 6-dimension sleep health index was calculated. RESULTS Sex, chronotype, and sleep health predominantly shaped HR circadian oscillations. In detail, females consistently showed higher HR across the 24 hours. Moreover, chronotype was associated to a phase shift in HR circadian profiles, with later timings corresponding to eveningness. Notably, sleep health impacted HR circadian oscillations in a dose-dependent fashion: each additional impaired sleep dimension was associated with a 1.2 bpm HR increase during nighttime, alongside reduced circadian robustness and delayed oscillation timings. Finally, the earlier occurrence of morning HR peaks served as a digital biomarker of insomnia (80% specificity, 74% sensitivity). CONCLUSIONS This work provides a digital health framework to characterize HR circadian oscillations in free-living populations and supports its clinical utility in capturing the autonomic disruptions related to cardiometabolic health determinants.

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Exploratory Assessment of Pulsed-Wave Doppler Representations of Lung Sounds Using Deep Learning: An In-Vitro Phantom Study

Saad, A. A.; Murthi, S. B.; Boctor, E. M.; Teeter, W. A.; Seam, N.

2026-06-10 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.06.09.26353787 medRxiv
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The increasing availability of portable ultrasound systems motivates exploration of novel approaches to respiratory signal assessment. In this in-vitro study, we investigate whether pulsed-wave (PW) Doppler ultrasound can capture structured spectral patterns from replayed lung sound recordings. Digitized respiratory sounds were replayed through a tissue-mimicking ultrasound phantom, generating 1,478 PW Doppler spectral images from recordings associated with healthy subjects and several externally labeled disease categories. Exploratory classification experiments using a ResNet-18 architecture demonstrated that these Doppler representations contain learnable differences under controlled conditions. These findings motivate further investigation into PW Doppler as a potential representation of respiratory acoustics.

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Oxygen-based endotypes of Obstructive Sleep Apnea

Wellman, A.; Messineo, L.; Azarbarzin, A.; Esmaeili, N.; Aishah, A.; Vena, D.; Sumner, J.; White, D.; Sands, S.

2026-06-04 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354835 medRxiv
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Objective: Several endotypes contribute to the development of Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). However, efforts to measure these endotypes have been challenging. In this paper, we propose a new method that overcomes some of these challenges. Methods: To test the feasibility of this new method, data from the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) were analyzed and two oxygen-based endotypes were identified and plotted on a graphical model: the steady-state SpO2 and the SpO2 arousal threshold. The first is the oxygen saturation that would occur during sleep if there were no arousals, and it is a measure of upper airway collapsibility (a more collapsible airway produces a lower SpO2). The latter is the oxygen saturation that triggers arousals. These endotypes were validated by assessing their ability to detect positional and state-related changes in airway collapsibility and arousal threshold. Results: The study showed that it was feasible to measure oxygen-based endotypes in 95% of SHHS participants. As expected, steady-state SpO2 was lower during supine vs. non-supine sleep, as well as during REM vs. NREM sleep. Also, the SpO2 arousal threshold was similar between supine and non-supine sleep. However, SpO2 arousal threshold was not lower in REM sleep vs. NREM sleep. Therefore, in 3 of the 4 conditions, the oxygen-based endotypes moved in the expected direction due to positional or sleep state changes. Conclusion: Although further validation experiments are required, this study indicates that OSA endotyping using the pulse oximetry signal is feasible. The oxygen-based endotypes could be used to aid therapeutic decision making.

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Prevalence of pfkelch13 Mutations and Clinical Indicators of Artemisinin Partial Resistance in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Cohorts

Munyangi wa Nkola, J.; Akilimali Zalagile, P.; Lukuke Mbutshu, H.; Kabala Munyemo, S.; Ramazani Bin Eradi, I.; CAMARA, A.

2026-06-10 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354685 medRxiv
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Background: Artemisinin-based combination therapies remain the mainstay of malaria control strategies; nevertheless, the advent of genetic markers linked to partial artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum has elicited substantial concern across African settings. To assess the prevalence, geographic distribution, and clinical associations of these molecular markers, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.Methods: We conducted a search of cohort studies published between January 2015 and June 2025, following PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We queried databases including PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, and CINAHL. Eligibility required prospective enrollment of patients, longitudinal monitoring (therapeutic efficacy studies), and pfkelch13 propeller domain genotyping.Results: A meta-analytical synthesis of 888 isolates from six core prospective cohorts revealed a pooled prevalence of 6% (95% CI: 2.1%-11.8%) for validated pfkelch13 mutations. A profound geographic dichotomy was identified: while West and Central African cohorts maintained a 0% prevalence, East African hotspots showed significant expansion, with prevalence reaching 12.8% in Rwanda and up to 25.5% in Northern Uganda; high statistical heterogeneity (, ) reflects this biological divergence. Conclusions: These findings highlight the established and expanding presence of artemisinin partial resistance in East Africa. Standardized surveillance is essential to adapt malaria control policies across the continent. Keywords: Africa; artemisinin resistance; clinical indicators; pfkelch13 gene; molecular markers; partial resistance; Plasmodium falciparum.

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Development and Prospective Validation of Predictive Model for Early Hemodynamic Deterioration in Critical Care: A Multicenter Study

Nagori, A.; Singh, P.; Firdos, S.; Devadiga, A.; Vats, V.; Gupta, A.; Bandhey, H.; Ailavadi, P.; Awasthi, R.; Narotam, N.; Mishra, A.; Lodha, R.; Sethi, T.

2026-06-10 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.06.05.26353765 medRxiv
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High-frequency physiological monitoring in ICUs can identify impending deterioration hours before clinical recognition yet extracting reliable early-warning signals from noisy vital-sign streams remains challenging. We present SIgnose, an interpretable prediction framework for early detection of abnormal shock index (SI), built from routinely monitored vital signs using physiologic variability and nonlinear time-series features. SIgnose was developed on the eICU Collaborative Research Database and externally validated on the MIMIC-III adult database and a pediatric SafeICU cohort (AIIMS New Delhi), with additional prospective validation in the pediatric ICU. We benchmarked three representation strategies: (i) engineered physiologic variability and nonlinear time-series features, (ii) deep learning, and (iii) Llama-3.1-8B embeddings with low-rank adaptation. Physiologic variability features consistently demonstrated superior cross-cohort generalization. The final model used 3,970 features from five vital signs to predict abnormal SI up to 8 hours ahead, achieving AUROC 0.861 (95% CI 0.859-0.863) and AUPRC 0.927 (95% CI 0.925-0.929) on eICU. External validation yielded AUROC 0.870 (95% CI 0.863-0.876) and AUPRC 0.935 (95% CI 0.930-0.940) on MIMIC-III, and AUROC 0.875 (95% CI 0.863-0.888) and AUPRC 0.915 (95% CI 0.898-0.930) on SafeICU; prospective pediatric validation (n = 88) achieved AUROC 0.885 (95% CI 0.868-0.902) and AUPRC 0.911 (95% CI 0.882-0.936). SHAP interpretability analysis identified heart rate variability, respiratory trend dynamics, and multi-scale blood pressure variability as key early-warning signatures. These findings establish SIgnose as a reproducible, low-compute, early-warning framework and demonstrate that physiologic variability features provide robust, generalizable representations for early deterioration detection across adult and pediatric critical care.

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Assessing the Reliability of a Controllable Sound Source Driven Bowel Sound Monitoring Device in Physiological Tissue Acoustic Environments

Zhao, J.; Zhao, Z.; Huang, X.; Li, Y.; Wu, J.; Peng, S.; Wang, S.; Sun, G.; Luan, Z.

2026-06-04 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354788 medRxiv
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Objective To verify the reliability of a self developed bowel sound monitoring device under real biological tissue acoustic propagation conditions using a controllable sound source, and to establish quantitative evidence for its translational applicability. Methods Freshly euthanized six month old Bama miniature pigs were used as an experimental model. A high fidelity Bluetooth audio playback device was implanted into the abdominal cavity to deliver manually annotated bowel sound recordings as controllable acoustic stimuli. A self developed bowel sound monitoring device was fixed on the abdominal surface for continuous signal acquisition. Playback timestamps were defined as the ground truth, and event level matching was performed within a predefined temporal tolerance window. Four performance indicators were evaluated: (1) bowel sound acquisition and energy amplification, (2) event matching accuracy, (3) acoustic feature consistency, and (4) subjective agreement assessed by blinded auscultation from gastroenterologists with different levels of clinical experience. Results The monitoring device exhibited stable detection capability and effectively covered the full spectral range of the original signals. It significantly enhanced bowel sound energy while preserving temporal and spectral characteristics, demonstrating high consistency in time and frequency domain features. Blinded clinician assessments showed a subjective agreement rate of 88.9% between original and surface recorded bowel sound events. Conclusions Under real tissue acoustic propagation conditions, the self-developed bowel sound monitoring device reliably captures bowel sound events with high temporal accuracy, acoustic fidelity, and clinical perceptual consistency. This controllable sound source based validation provides robust technical evidence for subsequent in vivo studies and clinical translation, supporting the development of objective and continuous gastrointestinal function monitoring.

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Cross-Sectional Validation of an 8-Electrode Multi-Frequency Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) Device Against Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) for Body Composition Assessment in Indian Adults

Bheda, A.; Sharma, M.; Jokare, N.; Kapoor, S.; Chouksey, J.

2026-06-09 nutrition 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353564 medRxiv
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Background: Obesity is becoming a global health crisis, and it leads to various metabolic disorders. Body mass index fails to differentiate fat mass from lean mass and systematically misclassifies adiposity risk - a limitation particularly pronounced in South Asian adults, who exhibit characteristically elevated visceral adiposity and reduced appendicular lean mass at a normal BMI. The 2025 Lancet Commission explicitly recommends direct adiposity measurement beyond BMI for obesity diagnosis. Weight loss interventions - whether dietary, behavioural, or pharmacological - are consistently associated with concurrent reductions in both fat mass and lean mass, making body composition monitoring essential beyond scale weight alone. Although DEXA is globally accepted as a gold standard for body composition analysis, the accessibility of DEXA is limited, particularly in resource-constrained low and middle-income countries such as India. BIA devices are a convenient low-cost option to DEXA and can be used for body composition analysis more frequently than a DEXA scan to provide longitudinal data. The aim of this study is to validate 8 electrode BIA devices as a viable alternative to DEXA scan for the South Asian population. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional validation study was conducted following ethics committee approval, with a priori sample size estimation ( = 0.05, power = 80%). Fifty-eight healthy adults (n=58) underwent three BIA measurements and one DEXA scan each. To ensure statistical independence, the three BIA readings per participant were averaged, yielding 58 final measurements for validation. Body fat percentage, lean mass and fat mass were evaluated using Python with statistical analyses like Bland Altman analysis, Pearson correlation, ICC and regression analysis. Results: In this BIA vs DEXA study, the Pearson correlation was strong across all three outcomes (fat%: r = 0.97; fat mass: r = 0.98; lean mass: r = 0.96), with ICC (2,1) values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.91 confirming excellent absolute agreement. Mean absolute error was 3.40% for fat percentage, 1.96 kg for fat mass, and 3.37 kg for lean mass. BIA systematically underestimated body fat percentage (bias -1.96%, 95% CI: -2.91% to -1.01%; LoA: -9.04% to +5.12%) and fat mass (bias -0.72 kg, 95% CI: -1.38 to -0.07 kg; LoA: -5.59 to +4.14 kg), while overestimating lean mass by +3.08 kg (95% CI: +2.34 to +3.82 kg; LoA: -2.46 to +8.62 kg). Conclusions: The 8-electrode BIA device shows clinically acceptable agreement with DEXA for body composition assessment in healthy Indian adults. It offers a radiation-free, cost-effective, accessible, and portable alternative to DEXA, making it suitable for longitudinal monitoring and trend detection. The device is particularly valuable for obesity screening and for tracking body composition changes during weight loss interventions at the population level, addressing the critical need for accessible body composition assessment in resource-limited settings.

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Context-Dependent Age-Group performance hierarchies limit fairness interventions in PPG-based heart rate prediction

Panchumarthi, L. Y.; Kataria, S.; Wu, Y.; Hu, X.; Fedorov, A.; Kwak, H. G.

2026-06-05 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.04.26352929 medRxiv
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Background. Fairness-aware machine learning increasingly targets demographic performance disparities in clinical prediction, yet whether standard bias mitigation strategies genuinely improve equity in physiological signal analysis remains unclear. Age-based disparities in photoplethysmography (PPG)-based heart rate prediction present a particular challenge, as age-related performance differences may reflect context-dependent physiological structure rather than correctable artifacts. Methods. We evaluated three fairness interventions, inverse-frequency weighting (IF), Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (GroupDRO), and adversarial debiasing (ADV), applied via fine-tuning of a PPG foundation model across three clinical datasets spanning intensive care unit, laboratory, and consumer wearable contexts. Outcomes were assessed using a 2x2 framework classifying each intervention-dataset combination by the joint direction of change in mean absolute error (MAE) and fairness gap (FG) across age groups, yielding four outcome types: genuine improvement (G), leveling down (L), selective benefit (S), and both worse (W). Results. Across nine intra-domain conditions, no intervention simultaneously improved both MAE and FG (0/9 genuine improvement). The dominant pattern was leveling down (5/9): FG decreased but was accompanied by MAE degradation, indicating that apparent fairness gains were achieved at the cost of overall predictive performance. Age-group difficulty ordering varied across clinical contexts at baseline and was not preserved under intervention. In 18 cross-domain transfer conditions, genuine improvement was rare (4/18) and observed exclusively in non-MIMIC source configurations; models fine-tuned on MIMIC-sourced data yielded no genuine improvements (0/6). Embedding-level representation changes following fine-tuning did not reliably predict fairness outcomes. Conclusions. Age-based fairness interventions in PPG heart rate prediction indicate a leveling-down pattern rather than genuine equity improvement, suggesting that age-related performance gaps reflect context-dependent physiological structure not fully addressable through standard bias mitigation. Cross-domain transfer further amplifies this instability. These findings suggest that fairness evaluation frameworks for age-stratified physiological prediction should account for context-dependent performance structure rather than treating observed gaps as correctable bias.

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Acceptability and Perceptions of Artificial Intelligence in Organized Breast Cancer Screening: A Study of French Women

Jean, A.; Merceron, A.; Le Saux, A.; Mercier, E.; Benillouche, P.

2026-06-09 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.06.07.26354883 medRxiv
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This study aims to assess women's perceptions of artificial intelligence (AI) used in breast cancer screening in France by examining their knowledge of AI and the barriers to their participation in organized screening. The results of a survey conducted in June 2025 among a national sample of 2000 women (aged 40-75) reveal limited participation and persistent concerns among women. Nevertheless, despite a low awareness of specific AI applications, a large majority of the women surveyed are very favorable to the use of AI in breast cancer diagnosis, even considering it a lever to increase screening participation.

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Conus Medullaris Position in 9,808 Pediatric Lumbosacral MRI Examinations: A Large-Cohort Reference Distribution and the Normally Positioned Conus in Surgically Treated Tethered Cord

Tang, W.; Dong, Y.; Chen, J.; Yang, Y.; Huang, H.; Yu, M.; Zhu, J.; Shen, G.

2026-06-08 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355031 medRxiv
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Background. Tethered cord syndrome (TCS) is classically associated with a low-lying conus medullaris, yet many surgically treated children have a normally positioned conus (occult TCS). Large-scale normative data on conus position in children, and the diagnostic value of quantitative conus assessment, are limited. Purpose. To establish a large-cohort reference distribution for conus medullaris termination level in children, to quantify conus position in children surgically treated for presumed (occult) TCS, and to test whether automated conus segmentation and radiomics can distinguish TCS from normal. Materials and Methods. In this retrospective single-center study, conus termination level was extracted from structured radiology reports of consecutive pediatric lumbosacral MRI examinations and encoded numerically (L1 = 1, L2 = 2, etc.). Children surgically treated for tethered cord were identified by linkage to an operative registry (name and date of birth) and restricted to preoperative examinations. A deep-learning model (nnU-Net) was trained for conus segmentation on axial T2-weighted images. IBSI-compliant radiomic features were extracted; reproducibility was assessed by intra- and inter-observer intraclass correlation (ICC). A case-control radiomics analysis used batch-only ComBat harmonization and cross-validated L1-penalized logistic regression; discrimination was compared with conus level by paired bootstrap. Results. Among 9,808 examinations with a parseable conus level (98.5% of reports; parser validated against dual blinded annotation, 99.4% agreement, weighted kappa 0.946), the conus terminated in the L1 region in 85.7% and the L2 region in 14.3% of the reference cohort (postoperative examinations excluded, n = 9,655); a low-lying conus (>=L3) occurred in only 0.05% (5/9,655), and remained rare (0.14%, 14/9,808) including operated examinations (median L1; mean 1.13 +/- 0.33). A slightly more cephalad position was seen with increasing age (negligible correlation). Among 475 preoperative children surgically treated for tethered cord, 99.6% had a normally positioned conus (<=L2) and only 0.4% were low-lying. Automated conus segmentation achieved a held-out Dice of 0.85. Conus radiomics likewise did not distinguish TCS from controls (equivalence-tested null; full segmentation/radiomics pipeline reported in the companion methodological paper). Conclusion. In children, the conus medullaris terminates at L1-L2 in more than 99% of cases and is normally positioned in virtually all children surgically treated for TCS. Within the conus, neither position nor texture (radiomics) identifies tethered cord; whether the filum terminale carries a diagnostic signal was not tested here.

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Borderless battles: Modelling the spread of artemisinin partial resistance in connected subpopulations in southern Africa

Mapahla, L.; Kleinschmidt, I.; Silal, S. P.

2026-06-05 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354014 medRxiv
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Artemisinin partial resistance has not yet been reported in southern Africa. Therefore, the magnitude of the spread of artemisinin partial resistance in this region is yet to be quantified. Using a two strain metapopulation modelling framework, we explored possible spread of artemisinin partial resistance in eight connected countries with high level of human movement. We explored three scenarios in which artemisinin partial resistance may first enter circulation: low malaria transmission level country; high malaria transmission level country and all countries and compared to an artemisinin partial resistance free scenario. Partial rank correlation coefficient sensitivity analysis was performed to identify key parameters that drive artemisinin partial resistance spread. Our model simulations show that high mobility between countries can increase the spread of mutations associated with delayed clearance. Suggesting that artemisinin partial resistance will be confirmed (>5% partial resistant cases) after 14 years of circulation if it is to appear in southern Africa. We confirm that human movement, both human-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human probabilities of transmission, were significant and highly sensitive parameters in the spread of artemisinin partial resistance. Human mobility between countries can facilitate the spread of artemisinin partial resistance. More research is needed to identify strategies to preserve the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapies in the presence of partial artemisinin resistance, which may eventually lead to treatment failure and necessitate regimen replacement.

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Next-Generation Skin Cancer Detection Using Efficient Fuzzy Fusion of Genomic and Imaging Data

Molla, A. R.; Maity, A.; Saha, S.; Bhattacharya, R.; Chakraborty, A.; Biswas, S.; Nath, S.

2026-06-08 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355024 medRxiv
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Skin cancer requires early detection for improved survival rates. Most existing methods rely on deep learning based image classification, which is affected by visual similarity among lesions. Fewer studies use Gene Expression (GE) analysis, which captures molecular characteristics but lacks structural and visual details. To overcome limitations of individual modalities, this paper proposes a multimodal framework integrating dermoscopic images and GE profiles for skin cancer classification. EfficientNet and logistic regression are used for image based analysis and genomic skin lesion profiling, respectively, followed by fuzzy rule based decision systems to reduce uncertainty within individual modalities. Finally, fuzzy fusion combines predictions from both modalities using uncertainty based weighting of classifier outputs. The experimental findings show that both the image based and GE based classification models individually achieved accuracies of nearly 92%. However, the integration of prediction results through the proposed fuzzy fusion strategy further enhanced the classification performance, achieving an overall accuracy of 94.25%. The results obtained outperform contemporary methods, highlighting the effectiveness of combining complementary multimodal information compared with single modality approaches.

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KESOZI Digital Twin: Physics-Informed Neural Network for Independent Estimation and Prediction of Childhood Diarrheal Disease Burden in Kenya, Somaliland, and Zimbabwe

KESOZI Digital Twin, ; Agumba, J. O.; Namusonge, L.; Ogendo, J.; Hassan, M. A.; Pembere, A.; Takavarasha, M.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354823 medRxiv
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Childhood diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in settings affected by inadequate sanitation, climate variability, malnutrition, and limited healthcare access. Conventional forecasting approaches are often constrained by sparse surveillance data, weak spatial representation, and limited incorporation of mechanistic disease dynamics. This study presents a Physics-Informed Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Digital Twin framework that integrates Physics-Informed Neural Networks, Graph Neural Networks, diffusion-reaction epidemiological modeling, multimodal fusion learning, and Digital Twin simulation to estimate and predict childhood diarrheal disease burden in Kenya, Somaliland, and Zimbabwe. Using public epidemiological, environmental, climate, sanitation, and synthetic proof-of-concept datasets, the framework modeled temporal disease dynamics, spatial transmission, pathogen-attributed burden, and outbreak trajectories while enforcing epidemiological consistency through physics-informed optimization. Results demonstrated robust forecasting performance, enhanced spatial transmission modeling, uncertainty-aware predictions, and realistic outbreak simulations across the three countries. Rotavirus, Shigella, and Cryptosporidium were identified as major contributors to modeled mortality burden, while unsafe water exposure, poor sanitation, malnutrition, and climate-sensitive transmission substantially increased disease risk. Compared with a Bayesian baseline model, the multimodal framework achieved superior nonlinear risk characterization, geospatial learning, and temporal prediction. These findings highlight the potential of scientific machine learning and digital twin systems for infectious disease surveillance, outbreak forecasting, climate-health analytics, and evidence-based public health decision-making in low-resource African settings. Keywords: Physics-Informed Neural Networks, Graph Neural Networks, Digital Twin, Childhood Diarrheal Disease, Epidemiology, Kenya, Somaliland, Zimbabwe, Scientific Machine Learning, Spatial Epidemiology, Multimodal Fusion

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Reproductive health in Mexican women with systemic lupus erythematosus: pregnancy outcomes, menstrual irregularities and early menopause

Sevilla-Parra, G.; Bravo-Garcia, F.; Mier y Teran Guevara, M.; Montes-Garcia, A.; Schäfer, A.; Ochoa-Rodriguez, N.; Bienvenu Caballero, M.; Gonzalez Zenteno, S. G.; Pena-Ayala, A.; Tinajero-Nieto, L.; Torres-Valdez, E.; Martinez, D.; Hernandez-Ledesma, A. L.; Medina-Rivera, A.; Alpizar-Rodriguez, D.

2026-06-09 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.06.07.26354004 medRxiv
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Objective: To characterize pregnancy outcomes and menstrual irregularities in Mexican women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and identify clinical factors associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes and early-onset menopause. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of women with SLE enrolled in the Mexican Lupus Registry (LupusRGMX) between May 2021 and September 2024. Clinical and reproductive data were collected using standardized questionnaires. Menopause was defined as the absence of menstruation for [&ge;]12 consecutive months, and early menopause as onset before age 40. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with pregnancy complications and early menopause. Results: A total of 210 women were included. Median age was 38 years (IQR 29-46) and median disease duration was 4 years (IQR 1-10). Among women with a history of pregnancy (47%), full-term delivery predominated (61%), while pregnancy loss occurred in 26% and preterm delivery in 13%. Pregnancy complications were reported in 9.6%, most commonly preeclampsia (6.7%). Younger maternal age was independently associated with pregnancy complications (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.83-0.95) and adverse outcomes (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98). Higher disease activity was associated with complications in univariable analysis. Most pregnancies (68.3%) occurred before diagnosis. Early menopause was observed in 6.2% and independently associated with longer disease duration and older age. Conclusion: Younger maternal age was independently associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, whereas disease activity showed an association in univariable analysis. Most pregnancies occurred prior to SLE diagnosis. Early menopause was associated with longer disease duration, suggesting impact of cumulative disease burden on ovarian function.

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Multi-region sampling of the human small intestine using an ingestible device

Fu, B.; DeSchepper, L. B.; Sun, J.; McKeithen-Mead, S. A.; Kapili, B.; Ochoa-Andersen, P.; Spencer, S. P.; Fardeen, T.; Ricardo, M.; El Kamari, V.; Sinha, S.; Relman, D. A.; Grembi, J. A.; Shalon, D.; Estrela, S.; Huang, K. C.

2026-06-10 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26353912 medRxiv
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The human small intestine (SI) plays a central role in nutrient processing, host-microbe interactions, and immune regulation, yet remains poorly characterized due to the lack of minimally disruptive sampling methods. Here, we present a protocol for deploying, recovering, and analyzing samples collected using an ingestible device that enables multi-region, lumen-targeted SI sampling during normal digestion. The device incorporates a ~30-cm collapsible tube wound into pH- or time-responsive layers that sequentially unfurl in situ, typically capturing three spatially ordered samples with high yield and reliable retrieval. This protocol outlines study design, participant handling, device recovery, contamination control, and standardized workflows for analyses, including cell quantification, culturomics, sequencing, and metabolomics. We further describe benchmarking approaches for evaluating spatial resolution and strategies for assay prioritization when sample volume is limiting. By reducing participant burden and facilitating integration with stool, saliva, and clinical metadata, this approach enables longitudinal and large-cohort studies linking SI microbial ecology and host physiology to human health.

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Modeling cycle phases using hormone trajectories in women with and without polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome

Stujenske, T. M.; Bouchard, T. P.; Troy, A.; Kelemen, S.; Folino, B.; Wills, T.; Sugden, L. A.

2026-06-04 obstetrics and gynecology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354701 medRxiv
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The recent availability of at-home menstrual cycle tracking technology has created opportunities for personalized assessment of reproductive health, alongside improved characterization of hormone patterns in women with and without reproductive disorders such as polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome (PMOS), which affects approximately 10% of reproductive-age women. In this study, we leverage self-tracked urinary hormone data to develop an autoregressive Hidden Markov model (arHMM) that maps cycle days to physiologically meaningful phases based on hormone trajectories. By modeling day-to-day hormonal dynamics rather than absolute hormone levels, and allowing variable phase durations, this approach accommodates substantial variability in menstrual cycles, thereby enabling meaningful comparisons within and between individuals. Across more than 3800 cycles from over 1100 individuals, we find that arHMM-derived phases reproduce expected hormonal patterns within follicular, periovulatory, and luteal phases, and that phase-based timing for hormone testing outperforms conventional cycle day-based testing in capturing the luteinizing hormone surge and post-ovulatory progesterone rise, highlighting limitations of fixed-day clinical protocols. We identify phase-specific differences between healthy controls and individuals with self-reported PMOS, including lower luteinizing hormone in the periovulatory phase, and reduced luteal-phase progesterone levels in PMOS. Furthermore, features derived from arHMM phase assignments enable classification of PMOS status with ~78% accuracy, demonstrating the potential of this approach for non-invasive PMOS screening.

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Assessment of the accuracy of lung lesions diagnosis in adolescents with osteosarcoma using artificial intelligence

Uskova, N. G.; Gombolevskiy, V. A.; Chernina, V. Y.; Burenchev, D. V.; Akhaladze, D. G.; Panina, E. V.; Karachunskiy, A. I.; Tereschenko, G. V.; Goncharov, M. Y.; Soboleva, E. A.; Konopleva, E. I.; Bydanov, O. I.; Plekhov, S. Y.; Grachev, N. S.

2026-06-10 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.06.08.26354011 medRxiv
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Background. Lung metastases in osteosarcoma (OS) are the main cause of the death. The accuracy of the diagnosis of nodules by computed tomography (CT) of the lungs is critically important for determining the disseminated stage of the disease and planning surgical treatment. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the search for lung nodules increases the accuracy of diagnosis and reduces the chance of missing metastases. Objective: to evaluate the accuracy of lung nodules diagnosis in adolescents with OS using AI. Methods. A retrospective assessment of CT scans of adolescents with OS was performed. A pathological nodule with an average size of [&ge;]4 mm was considered a target finding. The diagnostic accuracy of an AI algorithm previously trained on an adult dataset was evaluated, and the number of false positives (FP) and false negatives (FN) was determined. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, area under the ROC curve (AUC), positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1-measure were calculated. Based on the obtained results, the effectiveness of the algorithm was assessed. Results. 248 CT scans of adolescents with OS were evaluated. The following results were obtained: in 5 cases, the AI algorithm showed a FP result (2.02%), in 34 cases, it showed a FN result (13.71%), and in 209 cases, a correct result (both true positive and true negative) (84.27%). The diagnostic accuracy of the algorithm was 0.843 (95% CI 0.794-0.887). The application of the AI algorithm in the practice of an X-ray doctor in a specific clinical task would allow to increase the sensitivity from 0.805 to 0.891, while ensuring an absolute decrease in the number of FN results by 8.59% and a relative decrease by 44%. Conclusion. The obtained results confirm the practical value of the application of the AI algorithm and justify the implementation of AI-assisted systems in the diagnostic protocols for lung metastases in adolescents with OS.